An Inconvenient Truth: Bonderman and the First Inning
By Mike McClary in Fungoes | 1 comment
We’ve all been exasperated by Jeremy Bonderman’s apparent inability to shutdown hitters in the first inning.
Today The Wall Street Journal and ESPN’s Rob Neyer take a closer look at Bonderman’s first-inning baggage.
First, The Journal sets the scene:
In 151 first innings in his career, Mr. Bonderman has given up 200 hits, 47 doubles, 27 home runs and 66 walks with an ERA of 7.09. Hitters facing him in the first have an All Star-caliber .316 batting average. In the second inning, their average drops to .216.
Former Tigers pitching coach Bob Cluck is quoted extensively in the Journal piece, describing the lengths to which he tried to simulate the first inning in the bullpen before the game.
He made Mr. Bonderman pitch a simulated first inning in the bullpen, then sit down, hoping that his first inning on the mound would feel like his second. No luck there, either. Given the young pitcher’s talent and value, Mr. Cluck hesitated to go further.
Then, Mr. Neyer weighs in:
This is all quite interesting, but of course the best explanation for Bonderman’s first-inning woes is not psychology or pitch selection or umpires; the best explanation is something we like to call “statistical fluctuation” or “random variation.”As a rookie in 2003, Bonderman was equally bad in the first and second innings — as measured by OPS allowed — and even worse in the third inning.
In 2004, Bonderman’s worst innings were the third and the fourth.
In 2005, Bonderman was absolutely horrible in the first inning, much worse than in any other inning.
In 2006, Bonderman wasn’t particularly good in the first inning, but he wasn’t particularly bad, either. And we would expect pitchers to struggle a bit in the first inning, because of course they’re facing a lineup that’s designed to perform well in the first inning.
In 2007, Bonderman was even worse in the first inning than he’d been in 2005.
But let’s go to the source. What does Bondo himself have to say about it?
It’s “not that big of a deal,” he says.
Ahem.
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Drew Paterson | Mar 22, 2008 | Reply
My faded memory as a child fan of the cubbies tells me that London Ontario’s Ferguson Jenkins had “the same problem”. He was great after the first inning but it was an adventure to get there. He actually was a relief pitcher at first with the cubs and whoever saw him then as becoming a starter was a genius. But those first innings, (I think) I remember.