What ails the Tigers? Well, for starters …
By Doug Hill in Doug's Dispatches, Fungoes | 3 comments
I’ve noted before I believe the Tigers’ bullpen troubles to be a direct result of its starting pitching putting the pen in unmanageable situations. When you’re going to the pen consistently in the sixth inning — as Detroit has been doing all too frequently — you’re bound to overextend your bullpen.
Since the All-Star Break — a span of 20 games — Detroit’s starting pitchers have made it into the seventh inning exactly eight times. That’s just 40% of the time. No starter has made it out of the eighth inning. During this span the Tigers are 9-11.
Why then is Manager Jim Leyland running windsprints to the mound every sixth inning?
My best guess lies in the lead-off hitters. I don’t have the resources of the Elias Sports Bureau or Retrosheet.org, but I do have my recollection and a small pool of data to draw from — tonight’s game against the A’s. Six out of the eight innings tonight the A’s lead-off hitter reached base safely. (Perhaps friend of the Fungo Lee Panas has some data on this.) I didn’t see or hear every inning of the Angels’ series, but if memory serves Anaheim’s first batter spent a lot of time starting innings on base.
It seems like simple math: Get the first batter of the inning and you’re bound to shorten your pitch count; allow that first batter to get on and pressurized pitches increase exponentially.
If this trend continues, even if Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya return healthy and effective, I’m not sure it will make a lick of difference if you’re still forced to run Jason Grilli and Company out there for the fifth and sixth innings every night.
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Dan | Aug 1, 2007 | Reply
I have noticed the days of pitchers going deep into games has gone the way of the VCR.
I have a feeling this is why pitchers break down so often. Pitchers from the 60’s and 70’s had 4 man rotations and stayed longer into games. Could his have helped them build up arm strength? Or did this cause more to flame out quicker?
Every Tiger game I watch, when a pitcher walks the leadoff batter, I grumble “Here we go again”….
One last thing….you are right about the odds/percentages of runs scored in an inning when the leadoff batter gets on base. I can’t remember the exact numbers, but it was something like three times more likely to score when a runner reaches base with no outs, compared to one out.